E-Bike Sales To Grow From 3.7 Million To 17 Million Per Year By 2030, Forecast Industry Experts

[Ross]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonrei ... e710172876

Three Brussels-based industry groups reported on December 2 that sales of all bicycles look set to rise over the next few years, with e-bikes leading the charge.

Europeans are expected to buy an extra 10 million bikes per year by 2030, 47% more than the annual number in 2019, said a joint statement from the three groups. The 30 million per year total will take bike sales to more than twice the number of passenger cars currently registered per year in the EU.

The groups are industry-supported lobbyist Cycling Industries Europe (CIE), industry association CONEBI, and user group organization European Cyclists’ Federation (ECF).

E-bikes are predicted to grow from 3.7 million bikes sold in 2019 to 17 million in 2030. The e-bike market in 2020 is already up by 23% year on year, and on the current trajectory, there will be 10 million e-bikes sold per year as early as 2024.

[Mububban]

Ebikes will get more people out of cars and back on a bike, remind them of how much fun bikes are, and will still help sell some non-assisted bikes as some will want to explore other riding options

[Janice]

Yes ebikes are definitely the future. As much as I like bicycles, they are not for everybody. Sydney is hot, hilly, spread out. The population is getting older. Traffic and parking getting worse. You can get an ebike for under $1000 and they will only get cheaper.

[AUbicycles]

You can get a cheap ebike for under $1000 but will make a lot of concessions such as a more basic bike (cheap components) without useful features like integrated lighting, mudguards, racks.

Cheaper motors and batteries will not give you the reliability and life as the brand-name batteries.

Be wary the brands that are sourcing the cheapest possible bikes to selling purely as budget bikes - with a lower lifespan, the motor and battery then contribute to waste. Cheap e-bikes are a bit of problem because they tend to be ‘cheap and nasty’ rather than ‘low cost and good value’.

Better is a thougtful e-bike purchase that is durable, purpose built and is a step beyond ‘fad’ towards function as it will then be a better and more useful bike. Independent 3rd party reviews and ratings are important as any brand can make and publish their own 5-star reviews.

[Janice]

Better is a thougtful e-bike purchase that is durable, purpose built and is a step beyond ‘fad’ towards function as it will then be a better and more useful bike. Independent 3rd party reviews and ratings are important as any brand can make and publish their own 5-star reviews.

Of course you will get a crap bike for $1000. I wouldn't but one but your average punter will baulk at an ebike costing thousands. Leitner do a bike for $1500 that looks decent although I have never ridden it.

I do wish we had the US laws. 750W and 32km/h on road ebikes. Ok 32km/h is faster than your average cyclist, but it gives a decent speed to commute and keep up with traffic.

[AUbicycles]

That is right, people will want to pay less so the cheapies will be appealing.

Won't agree on the 750W or 32kmh. In Europe a growing issue with the 250W / 25kmh standards regulated bikes is that the rate of injury and deaths is growing among senior riders who have more power than they can control with the power assistance.

I feel it is right that a sporty rider will comfortably reach 25km without assistance - under your own pedal power often comes confidence and control. With power assist, 25km is a good max speed for assistance (actual max power assistance is a little higher). 750 watt for off-road yes... but that is not necessary for on-road.

Speed pedelecs in the EU require a licence and a helmet approved for e-bikes and this would be a better solution. Also keeps the laws inline with more common international standards (seeing that our 250W laws following the EU standard).

[zebee]

I would like a bit more grunt for my heavy trike plus trailer. I'm fine with a speed limit but would like more power.

But mine is a special case. Laws have to be aimed at the majority case.

[Janice]

https://www.bike-eu.com/market/nieuws/2 ... 1608995252

From the head of Bosch

I would still project that every second bike in the near future will be an e-bike and in the long term two out of three will be an e-bike.

[Janice]

Deloitte, which released its annual technology, media, and telecommunications predictions last week, says it expects 130 million e-bikes to be sold globally between 2020 and 2023. It also noted that “the number of e-bikes on the roads will easily outpace other e-vehicles by the end of next year.”

https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/16/210 ... oitte-cars

[brumby33]

I do welcome the fact that more e-bikes will be available and that will hopefully make it more affordable, i'm thinking seriously about one very soon but am not really wanting to trade my Vivente on one. I have even considered a pedal assist on the Vivente but nah...i want to keep it as it is and invest in a separate e-bike system.

My question is that tech eventually breaks down, burns out, gets shorts in them, so for example you've had a decent e-bike for a few years but then suddenly the rear hub or pedals assist burns out, will it be a matter of getting it repaired of with many electrical products, it's buggered, chuck it, it's not worth repairing etc...then what? throw it on the already busting rubbish system?
It'll have to be a separate electrical rubbish terminal that they would have to go to and that's not easy to find, I've got a lot of old electrical stuff to chuck as I write this but the Councils have stopped it due to the pandemic so I've got no-where to dispose of it right now. What about Batteries, they will be the next disposable issue we face especially if E-bikes grow to the millions over the next decade.

As for super cheap e-bikes on the idea that department stores will eventually get into them as popularity expands, then will we see what has already happened where batteries exploding, burning the riders legs or catching fire, both of these have already happened and injuries have occurred.

As for the power and speed, I don't think they should be able to operate like the majority of the food delivery e-bikes can doing 40kph without pedalling, those people are riding them like motor scooters with throttle control and are illegal but never policed (which must be registered) , but i think 32kph is a good compromise rather than 25kph.

But overall, I do see e-bikes being a great thing to get people out of cars and get exercising.

brumby33